ARTICLE

The Local's Take (Week in Review and Look-Ahead) CommentaryBrian Kahn - Monday, August 23rd, 2010

A very early good morning from the Mountain Time Zone,

Sorry that I have been away for the latter part of last week - family in town, house to do list as I am guaranteeing that we will see snow in the next 30 days, and summer time with a 13 month old who is just starting to walk.  As I mentioned, snow (and fall) are approaching and it is nice to take the time to be outside with an infant turning into a toddler.

Finally, it was a heavy week of clients that for some reason, all wanted to meet at the end of the week, so I guess people are coming back from summer vacation and they want to make some money (or protect their money),

So, to the markets - it is still summer - I am guessing that traders will be back in full swing over the next 2 to 3 weeks and hopefully that means more intraday volatility, but no guarantees.  Could they be waiting for mid-term elections in November? Whatever the case, the intraday trading opportunities are scarce and I am glad I have swing and intermediate timeframes to refer to.

We will stick to the broad markets for this post and if things get wild (not expecting them), but just in case, I will post some charts later today.

As you can see on the chart, the SPY has A LOT of work to do to get back above 1130. With claims rising and unemployment only a week away, my money is on selling rallies and is already short via a bear call on some stock I own.  Remember, even if you are bearish, you have to pick your spots to be bearish - location, location, location!

I am not a buyer at these levels (as I have said before), but would look for some discounted pricing in certain stocks/individual equities if we move off another 10-20 percent.

With the summer market "issue" there has been lack of conviction and the technical analysis of the broad markets are extremely ugly. I am in a more of a wait and see mode as I think it is very, very difficult to project a move through 1015 on the bottom and 1130 on the top.

REMINDER - WE ARE AT 1175 - LOOK AT THE SPY CHART - THAT IS 50% FROM THE TOP AND 50% FROM THE BOTTOM - WHAT IS YOUR RISK TO REWARD AT THIS PRICE LEVEL. Maybe your individual equity positions are showing better risk to reward trades, but if not, is it really a great place to be initiating a trade - either short or long??

To the forex markets we go with a longer term chart of the GBP/USD.

As you can see, we are having trouble coming off our lows at 1.5460 (to be exact), but without conviction/equity conviction, we are sideways. Thus, I am pulling back the throttle on day trading until I see daily ranges of 150 pips and above (currently we are well below that).

 

Going forward, we are relatively light in the data calendar - things pick up considerably next week. We will keep an eye on durable goods, claims, and any speakers.

Local Tip: The Tour De Utah crit in Park City - ripping down Swede Alley and up Main Street and thanks to Bob at Zona Rosa for the finish line deck views

Happy Trading and do something Environmentally Cool as you should always be thinking about your "GreenBuzz" and how you want your footprint to look for the next generation.

Disclosure

Educational purposes only - no buy, hold or sell recommendations

Share |


Login or register to post comments