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The Local's Take: Morning (To Believe or Not Believe) CommentaryBrian Kahn - Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

Good Morning,

To believe in the rally or not believe the rally (sell the rally), that is the question! I still believe there are chinks in the armor and what is with forex - the dollar is weak against some and strong against others - makes for very technical-based trading, but isn't that how we get into low risk, high reward (and high probability) trades in the first place?

Let's look at SPY, with our Fibonacci Retracements on the recent downmove:

As I said on Sunday and again yesterday, I am a seller of the rally.  It just depends on if it gets to my level! Patience and location!

Next up, we have MMM - a leader in the markets:

This "leader" is now a laggard as it can't retrace much from last week's (now this week's) low.

Our final equity play (and our socially responsible tip of the day) is First Solar (FSLR):

Our August 145's are expir(ing) worthless and yes, I am selling September 145's for 1.08 (about .08 percent) in 31 days and it allows for an appreciation in the stock of 15%.  Selling the 145 is conservative, but as long as you have a decent buy in to the stock, you can be conservative and allow for appreciation.

REMEMBER, UNTIL THE MARKETS FAIL, WE ARE STILL IN AN UPTREND!

Let's move to forex, as I mentioned, the dollar is all over the place, weak against some and strong against others.  Today the commodity stocks are rallying and thus, the commodity pairs are soaring against the dollar. Examples are: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.  Let's look at the AUD/USD:

And finally, the dollar is staying strong against the non-commodity pairs such as GBP/USD and EUR/USD.  Let's look at the GBP/USD:

So as a trader in equities and/or forex, you can see how you are getting spots to:

**add performance to your portfolio on the bullish and bearish side

**"make up" performance with hedging strategies

Local Tip: Saturday's hairy criterium on Main St/Swede Ally (stage  4 of the Tour DE Utah)

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool

Disclosure

Educational purposes only - no buy, hold or sell recommendations

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