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Earnings Season Important Indicator for Bond Market DirectionAdrienne Penake - Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

Today, the treasury market is selling-off in the face of better economic reports and strong earnings from two DOW components, Intel and J.P. Morgan. If that is any indication of things to come, the bond market will have a rough finish to 2009. Investors, it seems, are looking for good news – any good news – as an indication that they should be comfortable taking risk again. There is still quite a bit of cash on the sidelines and if corporate earnings meet market expectations, we could see a significant sell-off in bonds. Even though we are still facing very difficult economic conditions and an unemployment rate close to 10%, a broad-based asset allocation shift as investors assume more risk in their portfolios may provide a weak backdrop for treasuries through the end of this year. Keep a close eye on the bond market’s reaction to corporate earnings reports for how pronounced the move might be.
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